We should have high confidence in these matchups.
We’re only talking about matchups that meet good/bad matchup criteria for the whole season, the last five weeks and the last three weeks. If a matchup doesn’t fit in all three categories, then it has to have a significant number in the last-five-weeks and last-three-weeks to be considered.
The players are ordered based on season-long adjusted fantasy points allowed. The numbers next to the names are fantasy points allowed by position and the NFL rank in that category in the last five weeks. For receivers we’ve included the yards the defense has allowed per game to that receiver type, according to Football Outsiders, instead.
When you’re setting your lineups in daily fantasy or trying to break a tie for your season-long lineup, these matchups should be one of your primary tools.
Top WR1 matchups
Jordy Nelson vs. Tampa Bay — 84.8 yards per game — Nelson could double that average this week.
Andre Johnson vs. Baltimore — 84.6 yards — With DeAndre Hopkins out this week and Case Keenum at quarterback, Andre Johnson could see a huge boost in targets. The Ravens have allowed No. 1 wide receivers to turn targets into lots of catches and yards.
Marques Colston/Kenny Stills vs. Atlanta — 82.3 yards — Is Stills the No. 1 or is it Colston? It doesn’t really matter, the Falcons allow both No. 1s and No. 2s to fly free.
DeSean Jackson played Philadelphia on Saturday
Julio Jones/Harry Douglas vs. New Orleans — 81.7 yards — If Julio Jones plays he’s a must-start. If Jones doesn’t play, Douglas is a must-start.
Steve Smith Sr./Torrey Smith vs. Houston — 80 yards — I’m not sure which Smith to recommend. Our projections have them very close. FFToday is calling it for Steve Smith Sr. and I’ve seen a few others suggest he might be a decent play this week, so let’s go with that.
Worst WR1 matchups
Larry Fitzgerald vs. Seattle — 36.5 yards — You weren’t starting Fitzgerald this week anyway.
Andre Holmes vs. Buffalo — 51.5 yards
Malcom Floyd vs. San Francisco — 55.1 yards
Demaryius Thomas vs. Cincinnati — 55.5 yards — Thomas is always a candidate for three TDs, but the Broncos haven’t thrown the ball much the last few weeks. I don’t expect them to start again against the Bengals.
Dez Bryant vs. Indianapolis — 55.8 yards — Like Thomas, Bryant is matchup-proof. There’s also a chance that the Cowboys take to the air to keep DeMarco Murray’s workload down. If they open up the offense we want Tony Romo and Dez Bryant on our daily fantasy team.