2016 Draft Kit

Wide receiver 2 matchups for conference championships weekend: Sleepers and busts

There are very few great matchups this week and quite a few bad matchups. That’s the price fantasy owners must pay during playoff football season.

It’s cool though. There are still values to find. Using matchups to build winning lineups is not the one key to winning at sites like FanDuel and Draft Kings. But used as part of a greater knowledge base they can lead to huge gains.

I built a lineup using just the top matchups across the list and was pleasantly surprised with the results.

Just like last week I’m going to present the matchups for all teams and positions still alive in the playoffs. In the preseason we added and subtracted some statistics in cases where there were strong good and bad matchups to accentuate the players we could expect to do better or worse than they might normally.

All players except kickers and defenses will be ranked based on reverse Defense-adjusted Value Over Average, a Football Outsiders’ exclusive statistic which tries to eliminate outliers and give us a true sense of how a defense performs against each position.

I’ve also included the DVOA rank (again top-10 and bottom-10 rankings should really be noted). For quarterbacks, running backs, tight ends, kickers and defenses, I’ve included PPR fantasy points per game allowed by the opposing defense in the last five games. For wide receivers I’ve included targets and yards allowed.

Conference championship boom or bust projections

Matchups: QB | RB | WR1 | WR2 | WR3/4 | TE | K | DEF | RB (rec.)

Thanks for reading all season. If you have any interest in other daily fantasy sports — and you should, especially for NBA games — please check back this week. I’m going to have some fresh content coming soon. I’ve entered a pile of low-end tournaments in the last week, gathering information and seeing how the chips fall. I’m starting to feel confident enough to write about them.

Wide receiver 2 matchups

Reggie Wayne/Donte Moncrief/Hakeem Nicks vs. New England — 17th DVOA, 6.9 targets for 60.9 yards allowed per game — Wayne is listed as WR2 on some depth charts. He had just one target last week. Moncrief has the highest upside among this trio so my belief is that they try to get him the ball like they did last week. He was tied with Daniel Herron for the team lead with eight targets.

Brandon LaFell vs. Indianapolis — 11th DVOA, 5.4 targets for 45.4 yards allowed per game — The Patriots are expected to have a big week which means LaFell and Julian Edelman have to be in play. LaFell had two 2-touchdown games, two 100-yard games and an 11 catch game this season.

Doug Baldwin vs. Green Bay — 7th DVOA, 6.4 targets for 41.7 yards allowed per game — Baldwin is completely off my radar this week. That makes him a nice contrarian pick in DFS, especially at sites where he gets a full point per reception.

Randall Cobb vs. Seattle — 6th DVOA, 5.9 targets for 45.2 yards allowed per game — The Seahawks have allowed only three 100-yard games this season, all to small fast receivers under 6-feet tall. Cobb is probably going to be owned by a lot of players who look back and see the games DeSean Jackson, Emmanuel Sanders and Odell Beckham Jr. had against the Seahawks.

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