2016 Draft Kit

Wide receiver 2 matchups for the divisional round: Sleepers and busts

In the regular season, the matchups highlighted here included only the top 10 and bottom 10 matchups in the league.

Now that we have narrowed the field down to only the best teams the matchups are a lot less clear. There’s only one good matchup at a lot of positions. Last week, I limited these matchups to just good and two bad matchups per position.

This week I’m going to list them all. Despite not having a lot of great matchups, we still need to fill out a full roster. And there’s going to be a lot of variance. Maybe a middle-of-the-pack matchup is all you care about to make a WR2 startable in your lineup.

So, with that out of the way, let’s talk about presentation. I’m not going to give you good and bad matchups this week. You get one list per position, eight-ish players. They are listed in order of best to worst. The best-to-worst listing is based on Football Outsiders’ Defense-adjusted Value Over Averages for QB, RB, WR1, WR2, WR3/4, TE and RB (Rec.). K and DEF are ranked based on season-long schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed.

Matchups: QB | RB | WR1 | WR2 | WR3/4 | TE | K | DEF | RB (rec)

Divisional round boom-or-bust projections

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Wide receiver 2

Randall Cobb vs. Dallas — This is my favorite wide receiver matchup of the week. We can trust Cobb to put up great numbers. The Cowboys rank fourth in DVOA against WR2s and give up 60.1 yards per game to them.

Brandon LaFell vs. Baltimore — Wide receivers of all types are a good play against the Ravens. Baltimore is 11th in DVOA and give up 60.5 yards per game to WRs, the second-most YPG among teams remaining in the playoffs. Baltimore also allowed 36.0 fantasy points per game to wide receivers over the last five weeks, 10th-most in the NFL.

Torrey Smith vs. New England — The receiver not facing Darrelle Revis should see decent volume and opportunity. Smith can be a game-breaker. I’ll find a way to get him in a handful of DFS lineups this weekend. The Patriots allow 60.9 yards per game to WR2s, most among teams still playing this weekend.

Jermaine Kearse vs. Carolina — The Panthers are middle-of-the-road in DVOA, but they allow just 49.1 yards per game to WR2s. They’ve allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game (28.3) to opposing wide receivers in the last five weeks. Depending on how the Panthers play it, this might be Doug Baldwin’s spot.

Emmanuel Sanders vs. Indianapolis — The Colts allow just 45.4 yards per game to opposing WR2s. Sanders will most definitely surpass that mark, but his ceiling may be limited this week.

Cole Beasley/Terrance Williams vs. Green Bay — Beasley had been out-targeting Williams in recent weeks but I’m not sure what Williams’ 2-touchdown game last week does to this situation. In either case, they get a defense allowing just 41.7 yards per game to WR2s. The Packers allow 37.2 yards per game to WR3s, so neither of these receivers are great options.

Jerricho Cotchery vs. Seattle — This is the spot where teams “can” “attack” the Seahawks, but there’s still not a lot to go on. Seattle allows WR2s to gain just 45.2 yards per game. They rank 27th in DVOA

Hakeem Nicks/Donte Moncrief/Reggie Wayne vs. Denver — This is an interesting situation. Moncrief is the best talent of the bunch, in my opinion, but Nicks and Wayne have both played ahead of him for most of the year, even after he had a couple breakout-type games. Nicks has never lived up to the star potential he showed in New York. Wayne is aging and ailing. The bad part of so much uncertainty is that the WR3 has one of the best matchups of the week against the Broncos. If I’m Indianapolis, I put Moncrief and T.Y. Hilton in the best position to make plays.

 





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