While we look at defensive efficiency for the team totals, I’m looking at receptions and yards allowed for the individual matchups rankings.
I also like to include some mention of Football Outsiders’ Defense-adjusted Value Over Average. They say DVOA isn’t helpful for fantasy players or at least isn’t as helpful as the yardage and receiving stats. But I like to think when the two numbers converge you get an ideal situation.
These individual matchups helped me determine a lineup that cashed and finished in the top 8.8 percent out of 92,400 lineups in last week’s Millionaire Maker at Draft Kings.
1. Terrance Williams vs. Seattle — Everybody’s scared of the Seahawks defense, but they’re giving up the most yards per game to opposing No. 2 wide receivers, according to Football Outisders.
2. Roddy White vs. Chicago — Roddy is super cheap and feels like almost a must-own this week. That probably makes him over-owned in the Millionaire Maker.
3. The Chiefs are on bye.
4. Brandon LaFell vs. Buffalo — You wouldn’t get me to roster a Patriots WR not named Julian Edelman, but I’m just afraid of that offense. If you were considering starting LaFell this should make you put him in your lineup. The projections say he’s at least a top-30 WR this week.
5. Alshon Jeffery vs. Atlanta — You were starting Jeffery anyway, right? What about at your DFS site of choice? Maybe he’s a better play than Marshall? I guess we’ll find out if the squeaky wheel strategy works.
6. Jeremy Kerley vs. Denver — Could come up big during garbage time.
7. Emmanuel Sanders vs. New York Jets — And we all thought Sanders was over-owned last week…
8. Indianapolis played on Thursday
9. Michael Floyd vs. Washington — News this morning that Carson Palmer will start for Arizona. That might mean more opportunities for Floyd and Fitzgerald in a terrific matchup. I’m probably going to stay away because Palmer sounds like he’s still going to be shaky.
10. Reuben Randle/Odell Beckham Jr./Victor Cruz vs. Philadelphia — Like I said in the WR1 talk, this situation is a little muddled because Cruz is their top receiver but he plays out of the slot mostly. But as you’ll see in my next post it really doesn’t matter this week against Philadelphia. It’s a good matchup for all of the receivers.
1. Cordarrelle Patterson vs. Detroit — We’ve been waiting all season for a breakout performance. It’s just like fantasy football to have him get it this week in a horrible matchup. I’m not betting on it, but I wouldn’t be surprised.
2. Nate Washington vs. Jacksonville
3. Brian Hartline vs. Green Bay — The DVOA lines up with the passing yards allowed numbers in this one.
4. Steve Smith Sr. vs. Tampa Bay — I find it surprising that despite how bad Tampa Bay has been against the pass they are a statistically bad matchup for opposing WR2s and Wr3s. I think this ranking will be affected by where they roll more coverage help to — the Torrey side or the Steve side.
5. Robert Woods vs. New England — You weren’t really thinking about starting Woods this week anyway because you got a brain in your head. Wait, you were? Sorry. Kyle Orton threw for 308 yards last week and Woods only caught 3-37.
6. Miles Austin vs. Pittsburgh — No sleepy start from Austin here.
7. Kenny Britt vs. San Francisco — This is a ++DVOA and yardage allowed matchup for the defense. It likely means a tough go for Britt.
8. Andre Holmes vs. San Diego
9. Randall Cobb vs. Miami — He’s too expensive to start with a bad matchup like this and an insanely good matchup for Jordy. Of course, that’s what a lot of people will think, making the electric Cobb a potential contrarian play in an offense that wants to be high-powered but hasn’t gotten there this year. Yet.
10. Anquan Boldin vs. St. Louis