2016 Draft Kit

Wide receiver 3/4 matchups for conference championship weekend: Sleepers and busts

There are very few great matchups this week and quite a few bad matchups. That’s the price fantasy owners must pay during playoff football season.

It’s cool though. There are still values to find. Using matchups to build winning lineups is not the one key to winning at sites like FanDuel and Draft Kings. But used as part of a greater knowledge base they can lead to huge gains.

I built a lineup using just the top matchups across the list and was pleasantly surprised with the results.

Just like last week I’m going to present the matchups for all teams and positions still alive in the playoffs. In the preseason we added and subtracted some statistics in cases where there were strong good and bad matchups to accentuate the players we could expect to do better or worse than they might normally.

All players except kickers and defenses will be ranked based on reverse Defense-adjusted Value Over Average, a Football Outsiders’ exclusive statistic which tries to eliminate outliers and give us a true sense of how a defense performs against each position.

I’ve also included the DVOA rank (again top-10 and bottom-10 rankings should really be noted). For quarterbacks, running backs, tight ends, kickers and defenses, I’ve included PPR fantasy points per game allowed by the opposing defense in the last five games. For wide receivers I’ve included targets and yards allowed.

Conference championship boom or bust projections

Matchups: QB | RB | WR1 | WR2 | WR3/4 | TE | K | DEF | RB (rec.)

Thanks for reading all season. If you have any interest in other daily fantasy sports — and you should, especially for NBA games — please check back this week. I’m going to have some fresh content coming soon. I’ve entered a pile of low-end tournaments in the last week, gathering information and seeing how the chips fall. I’m starting to feel confident enough to write about them.

Wide receiver 3/4 matchups

Danny Amendola/Brian Tyms vs. Indianapolis — 14th DVOA, 6.3 targets for 44 yards allowed per game — After amassing just 200 yards on 27 catches in the regular season, Amendola came away from last weekend with a pair of postseason touchdown catches. In the last three weeks, Amendola has 17 catches for 168 yards and two TDs

Ricardo Lockette/Kevin Norwood vs. Green Bay — 9th DVOA, 6 targets for 37.2 yards allowed per game — This is not a good matchup by any stretch of the imagination. Norwood is listed as Seattle’s No. 3, but I think Lockette is a better play. He’s more of a home run threat, making him more likely to be able to bust this matchup.

Donte Moncrief/Hakeem Nicks/Reggie Wayne vs. New England — 7th DVOA, 6.1 targets for 36.7 yards allowed per game — Like I said in the WR2 write up, Wayne is the No. 2 only in name and unlikely to contribute in that capacity. I think it’s more likely Wayne and Nicks get slotted here. I’m starting Moncrief in a handful of lineups. I think he could have a monster day as the Patriots do whatever they can to slow down T.Y. Hilton

Davante Adams vs. Seattle — 4th DVOA, 5 targets for 33.1 yards allowed per game — It was a bad matchup for Adams last week but he was the only Packers wide receiver to catch a touchdown pass AND he tied Randall Cobb for the team lead with 11 targets and finished with 117 yards on seven catches.

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