2016 Draft Kit

Wide receiver 3/4 matchups for the divisional round: Sleepers and busts

In the regular season, the matchups highlighted here included only the top 10 and bottom 10 matchups in the league.

Now that we have narrowed the field down to only the best teams the matchups are a lot less clear. There’s only one good matchup at a lot of positions. Last week, I limited these matchups to just good and two bad matchups per position.

This week I’m going to list them all. Despite not having a lot of great matchups, we still need to fill out a full roster. And there’s going to be a lot of variance. Maybe a middle-of-the-pack matchup is all you care about to make a WR2 startable in your lineup.

So, with that out of the way, let’s talk about presentation. I’m not going to give you good and bad matchups this week. You get one list per position, eight-ish players. They are listed in order of best to worst. The best-to-worst listing is based on Football Outsiders’ Defense-adjusted Value Over Averages for QB, RB, WR1, WR2, WR3/4, TE and RB (Rec.). K and DEF are ranked based on season-long schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed.

Matchups: QB | RB | WR1 | WR2 | WR3/4 | TE | K | DEF | RB (rec)

Divisional round boom-or-bust projections

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Wide receiver 3/4

Danny Amendola/Brian Tyms vs. Baltimore — The Ravens allow 52.9 yards per game to wide receivers third and below on teams’ depth charts. That’s the second-most among teams left in the playoffs. They also rank 9th in DVOA against them. Amendola is a plodder. I could see him getting 8 catches for 50 yards if the chips fall right. Tyms could get 1 catch for 40 yards and a touchdown.

Paul Richardson/Ricardo Lockette/Kevin Norwood vs. Carolina — Richardson is going to play more than the other two players so he’s probably the safer pick. Lockette and Norwood are real shot-in-the-dark plays. Carolina allows 50.2 yards per game to WR3/4s and rank 10th in DVOA

Donte Moncrief/Reggie Wayne/Hakeem Nicks vs. Denver — I discussed this situation a bit in the WR2s article. I think the Colts put Moncrief in the best position to succeed and that’s probably this spot. The Broncos allow 54.9 yards per game to opposing WR3s, the most of all teams available. It’s also the best matchup for all receiver types against the Broncos. Denver has given up just 18.7 PPR fantasy points per game to all opposing wide receivers in the last five weeks, second-fewest in the NFL.

Wes Welker/Andre Caldwell/Cody Latimer vs. Indianapolis — The Colts allow just 44 yards per game to other wide receivers and 27.4 PPR fantasy points per game to all wide receivers in the last five weeks. Again, another concern is Denver’s leaning on it’s running game so much to end the season.

Terrance Williams/Cole Beasley vs. Green Bay — Like the Wayne/Moncrief situation above, I discussed this situation quite a bit in the WR2s. I’m not sure which one gets the most targets out of the two, but neither one of them have strong matchups. The Packers allow 37.2 yards per game to wide receivers not lining up in the typical 1 and 2 spots.

Kamar Aiken/Marlon Brown/Jacoby Jones vs. New England — In my opinion, there is no clear No. 3 receiver in Baltimore for fantasy purposes. This matchup makes it easier to avoid the situation altogether. The Patriots allow just 36.7 yards per game to WRs ranked three or lower on depth charts.

Philly Brown/Brentin Bersin vs. Seattle — 33.1 yards per game allowed to WRs3/4.

Davante Adams vs. Dallas — The Cowboys are the third-most effective team in the NFL against WR3s or lower on the depth chart, but they have allowed 47 yards per game to them. That ranks them fourth among teams still playing this weekend.





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